* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 58 62 65 73 77 83 82 83 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 58 62 65 73 77 83 82 83 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 57 60 60 59 59 61 65 70 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 14 19 12 18 22 30 24 18 16 13 8 SHEAR DIR 303 328 351 19 27 2 352 342 336 291 255 249 92 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 157 157 156 156 155 157 157 159 161 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 141 141 140 137 135 134 136 137 138 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 62 63 59 68 64 68 63 60 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 20 19 22 25 31 31 36 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 -9 -2 5 -1 30 38 92 106 175 168 154 200 MB DIV 6 3 12 25 22 13 49 45 95 86 91 34 33 LAND (KM) 395 369 352 357 372 388 366 323 285 249 231 187 161 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.0 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.9 68.8 69.6 70.3 71.6 72.5 73.2 73.8 74.5 75.4 76.2 76.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 71 74 62 58 52 49 67 71 68 68 83 36 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 11. 14. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 22. 29. 32. 38. 37. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 28. 32. 38. 37. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY