* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 08/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 56 62 65 64 63 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 56 62 65 64 63 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 54 60 66 68 69 68 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 6 7 7 6 5 7 10 12 17 16 21 SHEAR DIR 85 116 162 188 184 195 337 47 53 21 50 42 48 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.0 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.3 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 127 124 121 116 116 120 127 128 130 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 124 122 118 112 112 117 122 122 121 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 70 69 66 62 62 59 57 52 46 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 6 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 97 90 81 80 67 42 20 15 -13 -56 -108 -166 200 MB DIV 58 39 27 27 32 10 18 10 12 19 -19 -24 -7 LAND (KM) 978 1111 1246 1410 1574 1903 2134 1983 1895 1785 1530 1305 1144 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.2 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.9 29.1 30.6 32.1 35.1 38.4 41.9 45.4 48.8 51.9 54.8 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 8 6 4 4 0 0 6 16 18 19 30 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 20. 26. 32. 36. 36. 35. 32. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 32. 35. 34. 33. 30. 28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY