* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/31/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 129 128 127 117 107 93 81 70 58 47 40 V (KT) LAND 125 142 143 142 140 131 90 50 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 125 136 133 130 124 113 80 46 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 10 13 18 19 22 20 21 22 23 29 37 SHEAR DIR 202 196 173 189 206 225 227 261 262 258 249 248 241 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 162 158 153 148 139 131 124 117 115 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 154 149 144 136 127 116 107 103 97 94 99 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -49.1 -49.7 -49.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 7 8 4 9 2 3 0 5 700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 62 61 61 56 60 64 70 62 54 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 26 25 22 20 21 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 66 68 80 76 40 20 -9 29 42 13 27 38 200 MB DIV 98 42 50 57 51 20 63 0 50 22 17 -10 2 LAND (KM) -13 118 254 402 348 93 -28 -131 -178 -238 -307 -328 -304 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.4 28.3 29.9 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.4 85.4 86.5 87.5 89.6 91.5 92.7 93.2 93.9 95.0 95.7 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 9 6 4 5 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 91 106 95 47 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 0. -9. -23. -35. -47. -54. -60. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -15. -12. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -8. -18. -31. -42. -52. -64. -75. -83. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 3. 2. -8. -18. -32. -44. -55. -67. -78. -85. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY