* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/31/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 59 59 66 71 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 59 59 66 71 75 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 54 55 55 53 53 57 61 66 SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 17 16 16 28 28 30 22 11 20 11 14 SHEAR DIR 329 347 20 25 354 354 339 332 304 265 228 235 183 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 159 158 157 156 156 156 159 160 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 142 139 135 133 132 133 138 140 144 144 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.0 -50.5 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 59 60 63 65 66 63 64 59 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 21 22 23 29 29 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 3 3 0 13 28 35 81 106 146 163 135 200 MB DIV -7 3 35 31 4 17 17 41 45 72 77 55 32 LAND (KM) 421 401 399 410 425 433 417 412 417 416 407 410 343 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 68.2 69.0 69.8 70.5 71.4 71.9 72.3 72.5 73.1 74.1 75.4 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 3 2 1 2 4 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 70 68 62 57 52 52 59 67 72 74 66 83 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY