* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 08/31/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 57 61 64 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 57 61 64 66 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 53 60 65 70 72 71 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 9 7 7 2 7 10 8 7 7 6 17 SHEAR DIR 182 216 207 190 221 289 355 39 12 354 347 297 264 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 121 118 116 115 121 127 128 134 139 134 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 119 116 113 112 117 123 122 124 125 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 68 68 59 59 56 53 53 52 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 89 85 73 64 22 4 -4 -1 -25 -103 -124 -87 200 MB DIV 36 18 24 21 17 -2 10 28 -23 12 -29 24 24 LAND (KM) 1085 1255 1427 1615 1804 2167 2113 2074 1895 1733 1771 1515 1238 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 19.3 20.6 22.3 24.4 26.9 29.7 32.8 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 27.6 29.2 30.7 32.4 34.1 37.7 41.4 45.2 48.6 51.6 53.5 53.9 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 17 16 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 3 1 0 0 6 14 15 18 9 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 27. 32. 35. 37. 36. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. 35. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY