* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/31/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 116 114 108 99 88 79 69 58 47 38 V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 116 114 108 66 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 114 113 110 103 64 39 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 11 17 18 20 19 14 23 23 33 29 33 SHEAR DIR 197 164 169 194 232 227 255 252 248 259 262 252 250 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 161 158 156 150 146 137 129 123 116 114 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 148 144 141 131 123 113 106 101 96 94 97 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.1 -49.4 -50.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 11 9 9 6 8 3 2 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 60 57 57 55 59 69 64 53 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 26 25 21 20 20 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 80 78 51 44 -3 40 41 20 20 37 38 200 MB DIV 61 48 46 35 -9 30 18 23 24 20 30 15 8 LAND (KM) 107 250 394 360 225 33 -44 -142 -200 -250 -318 -342 -322 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.9 30.2 31.0 31.6 32.0 32.5 32.5 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.4 86.4 87.5 88.5 90.5 91.9 92.7 93.3 94.0 95.0 95.8 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 92 108 100 49 31 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -7. -19. -30. -40. -46. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -6. -4. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -24. -34. -44. -55. -66. -75. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -27. -36. -46. -57. -68. -77. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED