* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/31/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 59 63 62 66 69 74 74 78 75 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 59 63 62 66 69 74 74 78 75 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 56 58 61 62 60 60 61 65 71 76 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 19 16 21 20 33 22 20 12 15 10 9 SHEAR DIR 340 7 8 355 350 353 341 332 310 256 284 224 250 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 158 158 157 156 156 158 160 164 163 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 139 138 136 134 133 135 139 143 143 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.2 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 60 58 69 64 67 58 60 52 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 25 26 27 26 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 8 7 1 27 21 61 70 127 120 136 106 200 MB DIV 6 29 29 4 -6 50 11 65 67 58 47 67 23 LAND (KM) 404 405 419 424 433 414 401 391 387 393 415 388 287 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.3 24.9 25.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.3 70.0 70.6 71.2 72.1 72.8 73.2 73.5 74.2 75.3 76.3 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 56 52 51 63 73 72 68 67 82 76 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 14. 17. 20. 24. 24. 27. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 12. 16. 19. 24. 24. 28. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY