* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL972008 08/31/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 56 62 65 69 71 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 56 62 65 69 71 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 49 56 62 69 74 76 75 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 6 6 1 8 11 7 2 7 9 10 16 SHEAR DIR 192 205 169 145 198 61 48 84 307 50 325 332 296 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.1 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 116 116 117 123 128 130 136 140 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 115 112 112 113 119 124 124 127 126 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 61 63 57 60 57 57 52 49 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 101 93 86 75 42 30 25 11 -20 -88 -108 -94 200 MB DIV 41 31 26 26 8 15 22 11 -15 -16 -8 -15 0 LAND (KM) 1398 1562 1726 1884 2043 2063 1931 1908 1713 1553 1574 1603 1466 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.8 21.3 23.3 26.0 28.7 31.5 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 32.0 33.5 35.0 36.4 39.7 43.2 46.6 50.1 53.1 55.2 55.4 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 17 17 18 19 18 14 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 1 0 2 11 17 16 23 19 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 32. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 32. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED