* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 08/31/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 51 61 64 67 66 65 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 51 61 64 67 66 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 55 63 67 67 62 56 SHEAR (KTS) 15 4 3 2 3 3 10 8 23 22 29 30 27 SHEAR DIR 309 316 34 22 325 226 300 272 314 278 259 280 299 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 127 128 132 138 142 148 151 145 135 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 114 115 116 120 125 129 134 138 130 119 107 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 42 44 45 47 49 48 51 48 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 80 72 61 74 78 70 -3 -23 -33 -27 -69 200 MB DIV 36 40 8 -6 -5 37 41 38 14 66 40 4 -17 LAND (KM) 1747 1699 1655 1591 1509 1350 1205 1091 1018 1045 1194 1066 867 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.1 25.2 26.9 29.0 31.4 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.2 50.0 50.9 51.7 53.5 55.3 57.2 59.2 61.4 63.5 65.5 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 14 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 18 20 27 37 42 39 38 18 9 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. 10. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 37. 40. 42. 42. 40. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 26. 36. 39. 42. 41. 40. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 08/31/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 08/31/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED