* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/31/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 105 106 105 102 94 84 76 66 57 46 37 V (KT) LAND 105 103 105 106 105 73 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 105 100 97 95 94 66 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 15 14 12 16 12 12 22 21 25 21 28 SHEAR DIR 174 178 197 230 203 230 247 246 261 244 268 250 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 156 154 151 148 135 124 122 122 117 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 142 138 134 128 114 101 98 100 96 94 96 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -48.9 -49.2 -48.6 -49.3 -49.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 9 7 9 4 7 1 2 0 4 1 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 57 62 57 64 69 74 64 54 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 28 29 28 27 25 23 24 21 21 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 70 79 72 50 40 21 -2 39 52 25 29 39 35 200 MB DIV 56 54 7 -23 6 33 18 60 21 43 3 13 7 LAND (KM) 288 419 310 177 72 -38 -156 -226 -238 -253 -298 -310 -302 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.5 30.0 31.2 31.8 31.9 32.0 32.3 32.3 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.5 87.5 88.6 89.6 91.5 93.1 93.8 93.9 94.3 95.1 95.5 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 3 1 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 111 82 46 34 33 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -17. -27. -35. -41. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -5. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. 0. 1. 1. -2. -10. -19. -27. -36. -45. -56. -66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. 0. 1. 0. -3. -11. -21. -29. -39. -48. -59. -68. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY