* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/31/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 50 54 55 62 67 72 78 81 79 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 50 54 55 62 67 72 78 81 79 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 44 45 46 48 49 51 56 62 70 74 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 14 20 22 24 25 19 11 16 7 9 6 SHEAR DIR 3 14 15 10 4 355 355 322 299 248 272 134 117 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 156 155 154 157 160 164 165 157 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 138 138 137 134 132 136 139 143 145 140 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 57 63 65 66 61 56 48 45 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 20 21 23 23 29 30 31 33 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 3 14 18 11 21 44 63 99 133 156 166 126 86 200 MB DIV 36 43 12 2 26 7 48 43 78 42 39 10 29 LAND (KM) 389 388 388 394 391 337 283 285 324 383 401 269 167 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.2 22.8 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.7 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.4 71.0 71.6 72.2 73.1 73.4 73.8 74.4 75.2 76.1 77.4 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 3 1 3 5 6 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 57 52 47 49 62 71 71 68 68 82 54 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 18. 23. 29. 35. 38. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 17. 22. 27. 33. 36. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY