* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 08/31/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 52 54 56 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 52 54 56 55 55 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 49 53 55 56 57 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 4 2 2 11 18 12 18 19 18 24 27 SHEAR DIR 207 189 148 139 33 52 51 60 38 57 33 47 77 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 116 116 117 123 128 127 132 139 141 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 114 112 111 113 118 122 120 121 126 124 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 63 57 57 55 52 53 46 40 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 8 6 4 3 7 12 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 86 75 64 47 15 -7 -27 -66 -132 -166 -179 200 MB DIV 53 39 38 19 22 22 7 -40 -18 -35 16 -31 5 LAND (KM) 1472 1620 1768 1927 2086 2067 1959 1918 1735 1516 1335 1223 1086 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.7 24.2 25.2 26.0 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.6 33.9 35.4 36.8 39.9 43.2 46.4 49.7 52.5 55.1 57.2 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 16 14 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 1 1 0 2 11 17 16 22 28 30 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -7. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 25. 27. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 24. 26. 25. 25. 26. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY