* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/31/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 99 100 99 92 80 70 61 53 43 36 27 V (KT) LAND 100 98 99 100 87 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 93 91 89 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 10 13 20 18 15 20 21 25 23 35 27 SHEAR DIR 191 209 226 216 224 271 271 260 272 257 255 253 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 154 151 150 143 133 124 122 121 122 123 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 138 133 131 122 111 101 99 98 99 100 99 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.6 -48.7 -48.5 -48.1 -48.9 -49.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 8 9 6 8 3 2 0 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 56 60 55 54 64 72 71 63 51 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 31 29 32 28 22 22 21 20 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 45 30 37 -12 45 38 28 11 18 -1 16 200 MB DIV 55 14 -5 18 23 -11 41 37 37 49 33 30 8 LAND (KM) 435 297 163 79 -4 -86 -168 -232 -246 -251 -248 -264 -298 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.5 31.3 31.8 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.8 88.8 89.8 90.7 92.3 93.6 94.4 94.6 94.9 95.2 95.6 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 3 1 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 75 43 34 32 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -17. -25. -33. -38. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -6. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. -1. -9. -20. -29. -37. -44. -54. -61. -71. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. 0. -1. -8. -20. -30. -39. -47. -57. -64. -73. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/31/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY