* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/31/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 42 48 52 62 67 71 71 69 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 41 42 48 52 62 67 71 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 47 52 55 SHEAR (KTS) 23 21 20 21 21 27 20 17 15 18 6 6 12 SHEAR DIR 12 4 6 353 5 354 341 329 224 239 165 168 114 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 157 157 156 159 164 165 157 142 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 137 137 136 135 134 138 144 146 139 125 109 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 62 64 62 66 63 62 52 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 31 32 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 7 21 37 38 85 95 148 139 138 92 80 200 MB DIV 37 11 5 27 49 21 77 87 105 40 25 22 41 LAND (KM) 411 422 424 404 376 315 274 279 334 403 306 197 85 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.3 23.1 23.4 24.1 25.4 27.0 28.8 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.7 72.2 72.7 73.1 73.8 74.2 74.8 75.4 76.2 77.0 78.6 80.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 5 4 4 3 2 4 6 8 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 65 71 71 68 69 38 88 54 27 34 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 23. 28. 33. 34. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 8. 12. 22. 27. 31. 31. 29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/31/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY