* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 08/31/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 55 61 60 59 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 55 61 60 59 58 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 44 49 54 57 59 60 60 61 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 5 6 8 12 8 13 21 16 22 21 26 SHEAR DIR 144 127 108 87 82 45 51 39 51 45 40 60 77 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 119 119 120 124 128 130 136 144 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 113 114 114 115 118 123 124 128 135 138 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 56 51 54 53 55 52 53 48 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 14 13 13 9 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 106 107 104 95 82 64 21 3 -25 -42 -62 -71 -61 200 MB DIV 50 50 31 29 23 31 26 -22 -10 -31 1 -18 4 LAND (KM) 1772 1896 2021 2072 2007 1883 1773 1707 1556 1293 1024 790 559 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.4 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.2 36.3 37.6 38.9 41.6 44.5 47.5 50.7 53.8 56.8 59.5 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 4 4 5 15 21 18 33 37 44 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 26. 31. 31. 30. 29. 28. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 25. 31. 30. 29. 28. 27. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/31/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY