* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 09/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 99 99 95 86 77 66 55 44 33 24 16 V (KT) LAND 100 99 99 99 73 45 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 98 96 94 72 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 9 12 14 19 14 18 24 26 31 38 31 36 SHEAR DIR 199 222 203 213 216 258 240 255 246 257 244 244 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 151 151 149 139 130 125 123 123 123 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 133 132 129 117 106 101 100 100 100 99 96 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.0 -48.2 -48.6 -48.5 -49.4 -49.4 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 10 9 5 8 1 2 0 5 1 7 700-500 MB RH 60 56 58 53 55 58 66 70 67 58 43 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 30 31 29 24 22 22 20 17 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 69 43 25 34 19 2 39 45 22 27 31 21 15 200 MB DIV 32 15 21 13 8 31 42 12 38 12 -11 -15 -8 LAND (KM) 299 176 86 4 -9 -122 -185 -224 -242 -259 -274 -283 -293 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.8 30.9 31.4 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.7 89.7 90.7 91.7 93.2 94.1 94.6 95.0 95.5 96.1 96.3 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 7 4 2 2 2 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 44 34 34 2 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. -3. -12. -21. -32. -42. -53. -64. -74. -82. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -4. -14. -23. -34. -45. -56. -67. -76. -84. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY