* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 48 52 61 67 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 48 52 61 67 67 65 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 38 38 39 39 38 39 42 46 49 40 SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 23 18 27 27 28 19 19 13 11 6 19 SHEAR DIR 355 2 4 11 1 354 338 309 243 183 134 195 211 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.3 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 157 158 159 161 165 161 142 125 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 136 135 135 135 136 140 145 144 126 109 102 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 -50.2 -50.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.0 -49.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 62 65 64 66 65 69 60 55 48 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 22 22 23 27 28 33 34 31 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 19 34 37 55 92 111 146 150 117 111 95 200 MB DIV 1 0 18 43 8 62 44 72 75 36 37 19 47 LAND (KM) 428 411 377 357 338 317 328 364 424 330 206 107 -101 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.2 25.1 26.6 28.7 30.7 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 72.4 72.9 73.2 73.5 74.1 74.3 74.8 75.5 76.8 78.5 80.3 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 8 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 60 67 71 70 69 67 68 76 81 35 33 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 10. 7. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 27. 27. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 21. 27. 27. 25. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY