* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 09/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 60 60 60 59 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 60 60 60 59 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 44 49 54 57 59 60 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 2 6 10 10 10 16 12 18 19 29 28 SHEAR DIR 185 131 322 33 58 60 63 37 40 32 44 41 48 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 118 118 119 124 127 129 135 143 148 154 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 113 114 118 122 123 128 135 137 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 62 55 55 56 56 53 54 50 50 44 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 12 12 11 13 10 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 98 89 82 71 67 42 17 -4 -45 -60 -87 -86 -92 200 MB DIV 44 25 18 22 10 5 -7 -4 -30 -12 -42 -19 -5 LAND (KM) 1853 2016 2119 2049 1988 1850 1780 1632 1354 1066 887 741 623 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.8 24.1 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 36.2 37.7 39.2 40.7 43.8 46.8 50.0 53.3 56.7 59.5 62.1 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 3 13 21 16 27 40 41 58 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 30. 31. 32. 31. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 30. 30. 30. 29. 26. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 09/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 09/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY