* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992008 09/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 50 56 63 68 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 50 56 63 68 72 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 26 28 33 37 38 39 41 45 51 57 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 2 2 10 22 28 20 18 12 9 13 9 SHEAR DIR 127 123 118 8 320 266 265 257 222 216 115 34 24 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.2 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 131 134 138 129 124 126 129 125 126 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 136 133 136 141 129 122 123 120 113 117 110 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 80 76 75 78 74 74 69 69 63 65 64 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 54 50 48 40 57 80 75 104 92 88 63 60 200 MB DIV 36 36 55 57 70 87 104 83 91 59 46 1 13 LAND (KM) 0 178 326 478 644 1022 1396 1760 2013 1795 1756 1849 2018 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.3 14.9 14.8 15.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 16.8 18.5 20.1 21.8 23.4 27.0 30.5 33.9 36.8 39.1 39.5 38.8 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 17 18 17 15 13 6 1 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 8 6 7 4 6 3 7 13 15 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 36. 43. 48. 52. 54. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 36. 43. 48. 52. 54. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 09/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)