* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 09/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 102 99 97 90 78 65 52 42 31 21 15 V (KT) LAND 100 101 84 66 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 85 66 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 10 13 21 19 9 25 20 28 27 33 31 34 SHEAR DIR 213 200 214 227 261 224 242 260 267 261 255 240 256 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 148 141 129 120 118 119 121 117 116 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 132 128 120 107 98 95 96 98 95 93 96 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.7 -48.8 -48.5 -48.7 -48.3 -48.8 -49.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 10 7 8 3 3 1 4 3 7 5 700-500 MB RH 51 54 52 55 52 62 66 67 60 51 40 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 31 30 28 29 24 22 21 18 18 14 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 43 28 29 16 -18 48 29 17 7 33 22 20 2 200 MB DIV 26 63 23 3 32 61 23 27 26 30 2 -12 7 LAND (KM) 149 50 -13 -33 -107 -194 -269 -277 -266 -262 -316 -324 -304 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.7 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.5 32.1 32.1 32.0 31.9 32.2 32.2 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.0 91.1 92.0 92.8 93.9 94.7 95.1 95.1 95.3 95.9 96.1 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 8 5 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 22 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -23. -31. -38. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -34. -46. -55. -66. -75. -82. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. -1. -3. -10. -22. -35. -48. -58. -69. -79. -85. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED