* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 52 56 64 69 71 65 62 56 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 47 52 56 64 69 71 65 50 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 48 48 48 50 53 56 58 47 33 SHEAR (KTS) 23 31 27 29 30 21 25 16 14 16 7 10 27 SHEAR DIR 357 356 13 357 355 338 313 256 211 151 219 209 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 28.8 27.3 26.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 156 157 161 164 162 150 129 119 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 134 131 132 135 140 145 144 135 114 104 94 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.3 -49.4 -49.0 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 5 5 1 700-500 MB RH 54 62 64 64 64 65 62 60 54 54 49 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 24 25 29 31 31 26 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 31 35 37 79 90 132 105 112 61 88 69 200 MB DIV -16 13 33 11 33 87 69 82 17 44 14 19 53 LAND (KM) 423 394 361 357 353 343 365 421 395 251 138 -64 -281 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.6 24.1 24.9 26.2 28.0 30.3 32.5 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.8 74.4 75.2 76.2 77.8 79.9 81.4 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 1 3 4 7 9 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 67 71 70 69 69 67 69 79 84 36 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 38.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 13. 21. 24. 25. 20. 18. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 11. 19. 24. 26. 20. 17. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY