* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 09/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 45 51 56 60 63 63 63 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 45 51 56 60 63 63 63 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 53 57 62 66 71 74 75 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 7 10 12 12 8 12 8 16 15 21 15 SHEAR DIR 201 287 53 71 65 90 47 74 39 62 66 75 62 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 119 121 126 129 131 140 147 152 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 114 113 115 120 124 126 135 141 145 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 52 53 51 52 48 47 45 42 42 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 9 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 90 84 78 78 61 21 3 -22 -48 -65 -71 -80 -90 200 MB DIV 28 26 24 20 4 14 -12 -16 -14 -22 -24 13 -4 LAND (KM) 2096 2017 1949 1893 1837 1746 1671 1474 1144 841 586 421 294 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.7 40.1 41.5 42.8 45.6 48.5 51.7 55.2 58.6 61.8 65.1 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 5 10 15 22 24 42 44 55 48 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 21. 27. 31. 34. 34. 35. 35. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 12. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 09/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 09/01/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY