* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992008 09/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 52 58 64 67 68 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 52 58 64 67 68 68 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 48 49 48 47 48 49 53 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 3 9 14 25 28 21 25 20 17 11 7 SHEAR DIR 123 118 52 359 283 257 265 242 234 217 207 189 224 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.8 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 135 139 136 127 122 122 120 118 117 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 134 137 142 138 126 119 118 112 108 105 103 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -54.4 -53.4 -54.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 75 75 78 78 75 73 66 65 60 60 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 51 41 44 71 70 82 101 88 86 89 71 200 MB DIV 34 53 59 72 64 112 85 115 74 44 37 12 -18 LAND (KM) 183 356 490 644 806 1151 1514 1858 2011 1872 1791 1801 1847 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 16.4 16.8 16.8 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 20.1 21.7 23.3 24.9 28.2 31.6 34.8 37.8 40.1 41.3 41.8 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 8 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 8 7 10 6 2 5 8 11 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 27. 33. 39. 42. 43. 43. 44. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 18. 27. 33. 39. 42. 43. 43. 44. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 09/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)