* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 09/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 97 94 87 74 61 49 36 26 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 92 66 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 82 67 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 25 19 9 19 26 22 30 33 34 36 36 SHEAR DIR 195 212 240 265 262 227 255 243 264 259 246 241 252 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 147 139 129 123 121 122 121 120 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 133 124 116 106 100 98 98 98 97 96 95 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -48.8 -48.8 -49.2 -49.3 -48.5 -49.7 -49.6 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 7 5 8 2 3 0 6 1 8 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 52 60 67 74 69 61 53 40 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 30 28 29 26 24 23 20 20 16 13 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 9 -20 10 30 29 11 27 53 34 30 16 200 MB DIV 37 30 16 17 44 87 22 40 16 1 -20 -12 -20 LAND (KM) 38 0 -58 -104 -157 -222 -269 -294 -292 -300 -326 -336 -346 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.0 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.3 92.3 93.0 93.6 94.5 95.2 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.4 96.6 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -13. -23. -31. -38. -42. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -7. -14. -26. -38. -49. -61. -71. -80. -86. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -26. -39. -51. -64. -74. -84. -89. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY