* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 53 57 60 68 73 73 68 64 60 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 53 57 60 68 73 73 68 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 54 54 55 56 60 64 67 44 32 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 26 31 24 28 22 14 1 16 5 13 22 SHEAR DIR 351 357 347 349 347 327 314 256 121 147 115 202 226 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.7 27.4 26.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 151 151 151 154 158 161 157 148 130 120 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 130 130 131 133 138 143 141 132 115 104 93 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.1 -49.6 -49.2 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 4 5 1 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 62 63 62 64 57 54 49 50 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 22 25 26 29 31 30 26 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 34 43 46 55 100 108 123 117 86 57 94 97 200 MB DIV 9 32 8 37 77 38 89 30 27 34 34 25 72 LAND (KM) 352 327 304 295 289 312 354 408 282 155 60 -164 -410 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.5 24.1 25.1 26.5 28.4 30.7 33.2 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.0 73.2 73.5 73.7 74.2 74.8 75.8 77.3 79.0 80.8 82.1 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 68 71 72 71 70 67 77 58 42 38 1 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 12. 19. 24. 24. 20. 15. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 18. 23. 23. 18. 14. 10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY