* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NINE AL092008 09/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 61 65 67 66 66 65 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 61 65 67 66 66 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 49 56 62 69 73 75 74 72 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 7 8 11 7 8 6 16 19 26 25 21 SHEAR DIR 254 44 84 78 84 75 70 53 16 46 47 43 48 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 124 127 129 133 132 138 146 153 158 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 119 122 124 128 127 133 140 144 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 50 48 50 47 48 43 44 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 10 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 85 71 67 59 40 9 0 -38 -62 -70 -84 -87 -90 200 MB DIV 32 19 12 -3 2 -20 -4 -28 -16 -17 -4 -6 -13 LAND (KM) 2014 1952 1893 1830 1782 1723 1541 1245 927 732 620 563 452 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 23.8 24.0 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 40.3 41.7 43.2 44.7 47.6 50.9 54.3 58.0 61.1 64.1 67.0 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 15 16 17 16 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 11 15 22 18 39 44 44 52 53 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 30. 35. 39. 39. 38. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 31. 35. 37. 36. 36. 35. 35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 NINE 09/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 NINE 09/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY