* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992008 09/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 60 67 71 73 72 69 67 64 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 60 67 71 73 72 69 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 40 44 49 56 61 61 59 56 53 53 54 SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 6 13 17 27 20 31 18 22 17 15 18 SHEAR DIR 138 105 352 282 275 258 247 222 191 189 218 223 248 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 139 143 140 133 127 122 117 115 116 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 141 147 142 131 122 114 108 106 107 110 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 77 76 75 76 69 63 57 53 55 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 42 41 47 76 83 94 88 69 69 52 20 200 MB DIV 63 67 74 73 99 113 101 77 43 25 -14 -20 -2 LAND (KM) 292 447 591 749 912 1258 1589 1868 2068 2072 2128 2190 2212 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.3 25.9 29.2 32.3 34.9 36.9 37.8 38.6 39.6 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 14 11 8 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 9 5 13 9 4 7 5 2 3 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 37. 41. 43. 42. 39. 37. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 37. 41. 43. 42. 39. 37. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 09/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)