* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 32 33 36 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 32 33 36 39 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 15 17 19 20 20 23 24 26 27 34 46 SHEAR DIR 214 217 222 202 205 217 212 215 236 243 266 273 281 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 136 133 128 126 126 127 129 130 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 48 50 47 42 36 31 27 23 24 26 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -9 -14 -6 -6 -11 -20 -25 -22 -12 -7 -2 -9 200 MB DIV -23 -2 22 22 15 2 -6 0 -7 -4 0 -5 -16 LAND (KM) 896 892 893 883 879 860 862 850 851 888 969 1081 1226 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.1 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.3 158.0 158.6 159.2 159.8 161.0 162.1 163.2 164.3 165.4 166.6 167.9 169.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY