* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * GUSTAV AL072008 09/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 76 74 67 59 48 38 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 65 49 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 64 48 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 17 10 12 21 19 28 30 38 42 52 44 SHEAR DIR 209 232 264 255 233 248 244 251 257 249 233 236 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 144 136 128 120 113 108 108 106 102 99 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 130 122 113 106 99 93 88 88 87 84 82 82 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.8 -49.2 -49.3 -49.1 -49.3 -49.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 7 5 9 4 4 0 3 2 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 62 66 68 67 61 55 41 34 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 27 24 23 23 23 20 16 12 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 -18 9 40 24 21 12 35 13 30 4 -40 200 MB DIV 28 34 36 51 48 33 52 16 36 19 12 -1 -4 LAND (KM) -24 -76 -133 -181 -230 -294 -362 -397 -400 -432 -471 -504 -519 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.4 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.1 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.3 93.2 93.7 94.2 94.9 95.5 95.6 95.3 95.3 95.6 95.6 95.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -19. -25. -31. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -18. -26. -37. -47. -58. -69. -76. -84. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -9. -11. -18. -26. -37. -47. -58. -69. -76. -84. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 09/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY