* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 72 74 76 76 83 85 86 81 74 61 54 V (KT) LAND 65 71 72 74 76 76 83 85 86 81 74 44 32 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 75 74 71 70 71 74 74 72 45 32 SHEAR (KTS) 26 30 35 31 30 26 19 21 19 6 3 11 29 SHEAR DIR 340 342 351 339 321 313 241 170 113 145 176 258 221 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.5 26.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 150 153 160 160 155 145 132 118 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 129 129 131 135 143 143 139 129 116 104 89 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -48.4 -48.7 -48.3 -48.6 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 6 2 4 700-500 MB RH 63 66 66 69 71 63 62 50 52 47 48 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 24 27 27 34 33 38 35 31 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 48 61 66 67 98 98 159 140 137 78 81 51 94 200 MB DIV 44 21 70 92 59 63 76 55 51 14 33 30 75 LAND (KM) 266 255 244 250 244 258 354 412 228 134 74 -220 -496 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 28.9 31.5 34.5 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.7 72.9 73.1 73.3 74.0 74.8 76.1 77.8 79.3 80.4 81.2 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 6 8 10 11 13 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 66 68 70 70 70 51 67 57 16 43 2 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -16. -15. -14. -11. -8. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 8. 12. 10. 6. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 17. 19. 23. 20. 12. 0. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 18. 20. 21. 16. 9. -4. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY