* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 57 61 68 71 72 71 67 66 64 64 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 57 61 68 71 72 71 67 66 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 55 59 67 72 76 78 78 76 74 73 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 7 7 11 8 9 11 24 22 21 18 23 SHEAR DIR 37 65 72 67 96 73 39 36 32 38 40 51 70 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 126 130 132 132 133 138 145 153 156 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 121 125 127 126 127 132 138 144 148 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 53 48 45 45 44 43 45 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 12 12 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 89 79 62 37 9 -9 -27 -46 -70 -71 -68 -85 -87 200 MB DIV 28 12 -6 0 1 -3 -14 0 -14 1 8 14 7 LAND (KM) 1930 1867 1802 1768 1751 1659 1458 1184 925 706 514 471 411 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.4 21.2 22.1 22.7 22.6 22.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.4 42.8 44.3 45.7 48.8 51.7 54.8 57.8 60.8 63.7 66.8 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 17 22 21 29 28 42 42 44 53 52 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 30. 33. 32. 30. 29. 27. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 31. 32. 31. 27. 26. 24. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/01/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY