* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992008 09/01/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 59 63 63 59 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 59 63 63 59 55 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 50 50 49 45 41 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 1 4 8 16 20 22 25 26 32 28 29 34 38 SHEAR DIR 134 339 269 253 242 252 206 199 185 198 206 234 232 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 143 144 137 131 127 121 116 114 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 140 145 146 136 126 120 112 107 105 106 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -51.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 79 78 78 79 77 67 61 60 53 45 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 46 62 71 65 81 83 70 65 59 49 11 200 MB DIV 67 78 80 104 123 67 77 82 13 5 1 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 404 547 704 863 1025 1354 1642 1857 1988 2053 2124 2199 2333 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.6 16.5 17.8 19.4 21.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.7 22.3 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 32.8 34.8 36.0 36.5 37.3 38.2 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 14 11 8 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 7 3 12 8 5 6 3 1 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -17. -19. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 29. 33. 33. 29. 25. 21. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 29. 33. 33. 29. 25. 21. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 09/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)