* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * GUSTAV AL072008 09/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 51 48 45 39 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 48 39 34 31 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 48 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 24 18 12 16 16 24 25 29 39 44 53 51 61 SHEAR DIR 234 270 253 236 241 246 234 245 243 235 224 233 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 140 130 123 118 112 107 103 100 97 95 94 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 119 109 102 97 92 88 85 83 80 80 78 78 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.5 -49.8 -49.8 -49.3 -50.4 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 4 9 8 1 2 0 4 0 5 0 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 63 65 65 68 59 52 44 40 44 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 23 22 22 23 20 17 12 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -25 17 38 12 26 12 18 29 29 16 -34 -12 200 MB DIV 30 50 63 49 61 35 57 19 16 18 -4 -7 2 LAND (KM) -107 -162 -226 -268 -311 -363 -415 -469 -529 -581 -623 -675 -738 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.3 33.8 34.4 34.9 35.3 35.8 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.1 93.8 94.2 94.5 95.1 95.5 95.5 95.2 95.0 94.8 94.5 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -17. -12. -8. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -17. -20. -26. -35. -43. -51. -58. -63. -67. -73. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -14. -17. -20. -26. -35. -43. -51. -58. -63. -67. -73. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 09/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 09/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY