* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 72 73 78 83 87 85 80 68 57 48 V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 72 73 78 83 87 85 80 60 38 31 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 75 73 70 71 75 79 76 61 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 27 35 33 35 24 19 19 16 19 12 15 16 45 SHEAR DIR 337 341 335 330 320 296 226 160 147 162 218 245 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 28.9 27.8 27.2 25.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 148 148 152 159 162 152 135 129 111 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 128 128 128 135 145 149 137 119 114 100 83 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -48.4 -48.5 -48.2 -48.0 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 4 6 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 71 68 68 59 48 40 46 46 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 24 25 27 31 35 36 36 36 29 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 72 79 103 110 126 150 150 111 75 63 54 107 200 MB DIV 15 57 70 58 63 85 62 56 50 10 7 79 49 LAND (KM) 224 205 188 194 196 220 313 370 164 98 -21 -329 -432 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.7 21.7 22.3 23.7 25.7 27.9 30.2 32.5 36.4 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.6 72.8 73.1 73.3 73.7 74.7 76.5 78.7 80.3 80.8 80.5 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 6 11 14 14 12 15 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 50 68 69 70 70 59 49 33 41 8 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -10. -8. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 2. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 17. 17. 14. 2. -9. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 15. 10. -2. -13. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY