* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 63 67 73 74 74 70 65 61 59 60 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 63 67 73 74 74 70 65 61 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 58 64 68 76 80 82 81 79 73 69 68 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 6 7 6 8 12 19 24 28 29 13 9 SHEAR DIR 17 58 70 112 114 1 6 14 47 51 46 25 76 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 127 131 132 132 133 142 149 155 158 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 118 121 126 127 126 127 135 142 146 147 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 52 54 52 52 52 50 44 45 45 45 45 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 83 71 55 30 8 -9 -37 -48 -69 -57 -66 -57 -52 200 MB DIV 18 -1 -1 6 -15 -14 -13 -18 -37 9 9 -20 -20 LAND (KM) 1914 1837 1766 1720 1689 1616 1421 1100 785 548 425 363 250 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.0 20.1 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.2 43.5 45.0 46.4 49.4 52.4 55.7 59.1 62.1 64.6 67.4 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 18 25 22 28 29 35 46 58 48 79 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 29. 29. 26. 23. 18. 17. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 18. 22. 28. 29. 29. 25. 20. 16. 14. 15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY