* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL992008 09/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 57 56 53 48 44 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 57 56 53 48 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 37 41 43 42 39 35 31 28 25 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 12 13 20 20 27 32 34 31 40 41 37 SHEAR DIR 360 287 284 264 269 242 229 227 213 217 218 224 232 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 141 144 143 134 128 121 116 116 120 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 143 146 145 133 123 115 108 107 110 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 80 78 70 63 57 50 49 45 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 57 60 69 66 71 43 40 30 23 14 -18 200 MB DIV 77 81 89 127 136 76 78 34 26 -20 -25 -11 -4 LAND (KM) 543 673 814 966 1121 1438 1719 1970 2175 2159 2162 2171 2228 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.3 19.5 20.8 22.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.5 24.9 26.4 27.9 30.9 33.5 35.8 37.6 39.3 40.9 42.6 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 8 2 12 9 5 4 2 3 8 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 27. 26. 23. 18. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 27. 26. 23. 18. 14. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 09/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)