* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 09/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 20 20 18 20 10 9 6 12 10 13 12 11 SHEAR DIR 67 74 81 91 91 114 121 162 167 220 187 223 196 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.1 24.5 23.5 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 144 141 136 125 107 96 87 84 81 82 80 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 67 63 60 55 49 46 40 38 33 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 37 27 21 7 5 -3 -3 -11 -6 -1 -6 200 MB DIV 29 28 3 -9 2 -28 -9 -5 -2 -19 -9 -6 -15 LAND (KM) 483 495 437 416 431 491 565 633 645 654 654 685 731 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.3 111.1 112.1 113.1 115.1 117.0 118.3 119.2 119.7 120.0 120.4 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 4 2 1 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY