* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 74 75 82 85 91 88 82 71 63 55 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 74 75 82 85 91 88 82 47 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 70 69 70 74 79 81 78 46 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 33 33 25 20 20 13 16 16 14 13 16 32 59 SHEAR DIR 342 356 340 325 312 217 232 118 148 190 243 226 234 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 28.6 27.6 26.1 23.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 150 154 160 160 147 134 118 99 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 130 133 138 146 146 134 119 104 89 78 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.2 -49.1 -48.4 -49.0 -49.1 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 70 70 65 68 55 51 43 46 47 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 23 25 25 29 30 33 32 29 23 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 72 85 111 118 106 154 143 136 70 58 32 57 103 200 MB DIV 49 79 79 66 60 107 55 98 18 32 21 77 55 LAND (KM) 155 150 144 170 174 229 323 305 169 71 -207 -285 -260 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.8 24.1 26.2 28.8 31.8 35.1 38.9 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.9 73.1 73.4 73.6 74.5 75.6 77.1 78.9 80.2 80.5 78.7 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 5 8 10 14 16 16 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 68 69 70 70 69 65 66 56 43 2 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 9. 7. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 10. 14. 21. 20. 16. 4. -4. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 15. 21. 18. 12. 1. -7. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED