* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 58 61 63 62 61 58 57 59 62 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 58 61 63 62 61 58 57 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 49 52 55 61 66 68 67 66 63 61 61 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 5 6 4 13 17 22 23 31 23 14 4 SHEAR DIR 88 128 124 75 51 13 16 28 35 38 37 21 31 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 128 130 133 133 133 137 144 152 157 160 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 125 127 127 127 131 137 143 148 152 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 51 50 49 49 47 47 49 52 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 14 14 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 68 51 37 19 10 -11 -28 -48 -48 -39 -39 -40 -45 200 MB DIV -1 -6 8 -18 -16 -12 -13 -14 -15 22 3 -1 19 LAND (KM) 1854 1791 1741 1708 1677 1511 1237 944 700 496 388 258 266 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.5 21.3 21.9 22.3 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.9 45.3 46.8 48.2 51.1 54.3 57.5 60.5 63.5 66.5 69.5 72.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 22 24 27 23 39 40 46 56 63 66 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 16. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 17. 16. 13. 12. 14. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY