* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * TEN AL102008 09/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 58 65 66 67 61 56 55 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 47 58 65 66 67 61 56 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 43 46 46 43 40 38 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 6 12 12 21 28 28 27 29 30 27 15 SHEAR DIR 308 314 256 263 272 215 226 195 208 189 215 216 222 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.2 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 140 144 144 141 133 125 117 117 122 127 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 141 146 146 142 132 122 112 109 114 119 119 118 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 75 75 67 62 55 51 51 56 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 15 15 15 20 21 19 20 15 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 41 46 49 41 48 32 32 22 20 5 -27 -33 200 MB DIV 73 75 106 110 80 84 52 16 3 -13 -47 2 -45 LAND (KM) 675 795 925 1063 1206 1503 1809 2123 2137 2070 2021 2004 1841 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.2 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.6 25.9 27.3 28.7 31.5 34.3 37.1 39.5 41.8 44.0 46.5 48.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 6 5 13 10 4 2 3 12 19 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 6. 7. 2. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 28. 35. 36. 37. 31. 26. 25. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 17. 28. 35. 36. 37. 31. 26. 25. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 TEN 09/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)