* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 32 33 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 32 33 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 19 16 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 17 16 15 19 21 25 30 38 51 58 57 SHEAR DIR 209 214 218 221 220 218 238 246 262 282 283 278 276 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 138 135 131 129 129 130 131 132 134 135 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 52 47 45 37 35 30 26 29 31 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -19 -21 -26 -31 -36 -40 -35 -26 -9 -4 -6 -17 200 MB DIV 38 18 -2 -2 3 -14 -14 7 -35 -10 -20 72 111 LAND (KM) 1050 1055 1066 1069 1078 1119 1182 1221 1299 1399 1512 1628 1759 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 158.9 159.6 160.2 160.9 161.6 163.1 164.5 166.0 167.4 168.6 169.9 171.3 172.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY