* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 09/02/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 23 21 21 15 11 12 12 15 11 18 10 11 SHEAR DIR 65 72 86 82 100 99 151 156 189 203 209 229 219 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.8 25.3 23.8 23.0 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 137 132 116 99 90 83 80 76 74 69 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 68 63 60 58 51 48 39 40 35 31 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 7 7 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 34 30 20 22 12 20 9 0 -3 -9 -13 -15 200 MB DIV 27 -14 -12 -1 -10 -22 2 1 -5 -7 -2 5 0 LAND (KM) 500 433 396 408 449 488 564 611 609 627 629 685 734 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.9 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 111.9 112.9 113.8 115.9 117.4 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.5 121.3 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 10 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -7. -14. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY