* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 54 58 63 67 70 71 67 61 56 45 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 54 58 63 67 70 71 54 36 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 54 53 53 55 60 64 65 52 35 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 36 25 19 22 12 15 16 19 12 12 18 40 61 SHEAR DIR 347 340 323 306 279 197 142 125 136 201 228 216 229 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.1 27.9 27.0 25.3 22.2 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 152 158 163 155 137 126 111 93 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 130 132 135 143 148 142 123 112 99 86 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 7 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 67 70 67 64 64 57 47 45 44 43 51 53 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 25 24 28 28 29 30 30 23 20 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 81 99 107 99 114 150 133 98 45 43 28 43 82 200 MB DIV 54 73 53 60 85 39 26 40 -2 6 64 74 82 LAND (KM) 144 161 166 177 202 282 385 190 90 -71 -312 -201 -125 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.9 22.3 23.5 25.2 27.3 29.9 32.9 36.3 40.3 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.2 73.4 73.5 73.8 74.1 75.1 76.4 78.2 80.3 81.1 80.3 76.9 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 9 12 15 15 16 20 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 70 68 48 17 51 18 7 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -1. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. 1. 6. 9. 13. 13. 8. 3. -3. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 7. 1. -4. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY