* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 64 67 68 66 65 64 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 64 67 68 66 65 64 64 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 57 60 64 70 74 75 74 72 71 72 75 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 5 3 10 13 22 21 26 22 17 7 11 SHEAR DIR 128 141 67 347 356 7 22 52 48 51 24 344 319 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 133 133 134 141 149 155 158 158 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 127 127 128 128 134 142 148 150 149 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 50 53 52 52 51 50 51 48 51 53 58 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 36 29 15 9 -24 -30 -46 -41 -54 -42 -37 -19 200 MB DIV 0 17 -13 -9 -7 -17 2 -25 6 12 2 -1 21 LAND (KM) 1775 1726 1686 1653 1551 1332 1051 766 496 348 265 188 159 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.7 47.1 48.6 50.1 53.2 56.1 59.2 62.5 65.5 68.2 71.0 73.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 25 28 24 34 38 47 49 55 83 74 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. 15. 15. 16. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 16. 15. 14. 14. 15. 16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY