* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 52 56 63 66 63 55 50 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 52 56 63 66 63 55 50 44 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 53 54 50 45 40 37 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 6 13 16 27 27 31 29 30 24 29 29 SHEAR DIR 328 232 273 262 229 225 217 210 213 200 217 213 214 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 145 142 138 132 126 120 117 118 123 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 146 143 136 128 121 114 109 108 113 121 124 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 79 74 72 69 64 57 54 53 51 59 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 17 17 19 22 20 17 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 39 47 45 30 34 50 24 31 30 51 38 26 -2 200 MB DIV 77 104 87 52 36 64 20 -9 -21 3 -28 12 -22 LAND (KM) 791 927 1065 1203 1344 1578 1826 2090 2077 2015 1958 1874 1809 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.6 26.0 27.3 28.7 30.0 32.2 34.5 36.9 39.1 40.9 42.3 44.6 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 12 12 12 12 10 8 9 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 12 12 8 4 5 3 6 13 21 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 29. 27. 22. 19. 13. 11. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 31. 28. 20. 15. 9. 7. 5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%)