* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 36 37 38 40 42 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 36 37 38 40 42 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 31 31 30 27 22 18 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 12 10 11 15 20 26 39 51 56 59 59 SHEAR DIR 222 227 229 227 219 227 266 275 288 285 280 271 270 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 136 134 132 132 131 132 133 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 53 49 48 46 37 34 31 30 33 36 33 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -17 -23 -30 -44 -43 -36 -24 -9 -9 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 20 -4 -6 2 0 -10 -6 -16 -26 -16 76 112 98 LAND (KM) 1130 1142 1159 1185 1217 1289 1333 1405 1486 1590 1706 1826 1953 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.7 11.9 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 160.3 161.0 161.7 162.5 163.3 164.8 166.3 167.8 169.1 170.4 171.7 173.1 174.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 16. 15. 16. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 17. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY