* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWELVE EP122008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 36 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 36 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 41 41 39 34 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 21 14 14 13 8 15 11 13 13 10 10 SHEAR DIR 69 85 81 102 87 116 158 169 210 184 220 196 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.0 24.2 23.2 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.6 21.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 131 124 104 93 86 81 76 75 71 67 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 63 59 58 54 49 42 39 38 34 31 27 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 17 16 6 1 7 2 -1 -2 2 7 6 200 MB DIV 9 -8 -5 -17 -42 -14 4 11 -11 4 -2 -2 -25 LAND (KM) 424 394 400 460 473 571 650 684 703 719 763 825 865 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.0 25.5 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.0 112.9 114.0 115.1 117.2 118.8 120.1 120.8 121.4 122.0 122.9 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 4 3 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -12. -19. -24. -29. -32. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -18. -24. -27. -30. -34. -38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP122008 TWELVE 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122008 TWELVE 09/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY