* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 09/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 19 19 14 11 11 8 15 11 13 14 10 10 SHEAR DIR 69 81 82 102 81 130 156 169 213 184 222 203 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.9 24.1 23.1 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 136 130 123 103 92 85 81 76 74 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 58 56 47 43 37 37 33 29 27 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 16 16 6 1 6 2 -2 -2 1 6 4 200 MB DIV 8 -9 -7 -19 -42 -14 5 10 -12 2 -3 -2 -25 LAND (KM) 402 378 394 443 456 560 634 669 689 696 740 802 846 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.0 113.0 114.1 115.1 117.2 118.8 120.0 120.7 121.2 121.8 122.7 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -17. -22. -24. -27. -29. -31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 09/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY