* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 50 53 56 62 64 65 59 58 56 51 V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 50 53 56 62 64 65 46 33 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 48 46 46 48 53 56 58 45 32 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 31 27 22 15 12 13 18 14 7 7 18 37 59 SHEAR DIR 332 318 301 269 221 181 128 121 94 211 224 236 252 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 28.9 27.6 27.1 23.9 20.1 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 150 152 159 163 152 134 129 102 86 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 133 135 138 144 149 139 120 116 94 81 73 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.6 -49.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.7 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 4 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 63 65 54 51 47 48 49 54 57 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 25 27 30 28 30 29 29 21 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 99 111 95 109 143 135 138 75 47 8 61 65 148 200 MB DIV 89 52 45 63 78 43 36 44 21 13 118 102 124 LAND (KM) 77 111 144 178 206 299 333 143 73 -114 -186 -145 -65 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.7 25.4 27.6 30.4 33.9 38.0 42.5 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.1 73.2 73.6 74.0 75.3 76.9 78.8 80.6 80.3 77.7 72.7 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 5 7 8 10 12 15 16 20 26 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 71 69 69 69 44 61 77 46 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -4. 0. 3. 8. 10. 12. 6. 5. 4. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -5. -2. 2. 7. 9. 10. 4. 3. 1. -4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY