* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 70 73 72 69 66 63 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 70 73 72 69 66 63 63 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 73 79 82 81 79 75 72 73 79 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 1 5 7 15 23 22 30 21 13 6 3 SHEAR DIR 123 132 134 21 27 29 44 56 61 64 34 272 310 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 133 135 138 145 152 155 158 156 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 128 129 132 138 145 148 150 148 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 51 54 53 50 48 48 51 54 55 60 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 9 3 0 -21 -46 -62 -52 -50 -55 -37 -30 -8 200 MB DIV 9 -13 -17 -29 -35 9 -5 -29 20 11 4 -9 31 LAND (KM) 1726 1683 1645 1541 1442 1172 902 634 395 322 191 167 83 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 47.1 48.5 50.1 51.6 54.8 57.6 60.6 63.8 66.8 69.6 72.4 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 27 26 28 43 48 54 58 72 74 67 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 18. 17. 15. 13. 11. 11. 12. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 17. 14. 11. 8. 8. 10. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY